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real winners and losers after iowa caucus

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February 2, 2016

The REAL Winners and Losers after the Iowa Caucus

By Mark Wachtler

February 2, 2016. Des Moines, IA (ONN) Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz may have garnered the most delegates after yesterday’s Iowa Caucus, but neither candidate should consider the results a victory. Like every election cycle, the first contest of the primary season is more about expectations than vote totals. Continue reading to see who really won and lost, who is most likely to drop out of the race, and who will be the recipient of tens of millions of dollars in new campaign funding.

Who were the real winners and losers after yesterday’s Iowa Caucus?

Democratic Party Results

Hillary Clinton (going down)

Make no mistake, Democratic Party leaders and the Clinton campaign are in a panic right now over their tie with Bernie Sanders after last night’s Iowa Caucus. Her opponent isn’t even a member of the Democratic Party – he’s a decades-long registered independent. Sanders is a white-haired, far left, self-described socialist. And he still tied Hillary Clinton in Iowa, outright winning half the counties in the state. The former Secretary of State should have won in a landslide. Bernie Sanders will most-likely win the next contest – New Hampshire. Clinton’s only victory was that she avoided, barely, what would have been a knock-out by losing the first two caucuses and primaries in the 2016 race.

Bernie Sanders (going up)

Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders may have garnered one less delegate than Hillary Clinton last night, but he and his supporters are celebrating today. The man every pundit in America said had no chance six months ago, won half the Democratic vote in Iowa. Sanders was supposed to lose by 20 percent or more. But he proved that even a religiously conservative state like Iowa can support an anti-establishment socialist. The voters are angry at the Washington elite. Hillary Clinton IS the Washington elite. Now that he’s proven his campaign is serious, and knowing he’s already ahead in New Hampshire polls, Bernie Sanders, as CNN put it last night, “Will break the internet tonight with small-dollar donations.”

Martin O’Malley (dropped out)

Before the vote totals were even finalized last night, former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley announced he was ending his campaign for President. He told supporters, “I wanted you to be first to know: tonight, I am suspending my campaign for the presidency…We must hold strong to our beliefs. A belief in the dignity of every person. A belief in our own responsibility to advance the common good we share. We all must hold strong to what this country truly is, can be, and should be, and must be.”



Republican Party Results

Ted Cruz (no change)

The US Senator from Texas may have garnered the most votes after yesterday’s Iowa Caucus, but the results were right in line with the final polls and expectations. Early polls may have showed Donald Trump with the lead in Iowa, but they were responses from many people who don’t even vote and the result of a media onslaught. Ted Cruz had the best ground game in the state and he was a major recipient of former Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee voters, all Christian conservatives. His slight victory last night should definitely be celebrated, as it made him the undisputed frontrunner. But New Hampshire will probably change that.

Donald Trump (no change)

Once again, polls from the final days before the Iowa Caucus showed Donald Trump trailing Ted Cruz by a couple percentage points. So last night’s results are no surprise. With little or no ground game, if Trump would have won, that would have been a surprise upset. By the same token, a third place finish would have been a disappointing loss. His strong second place finish is exactly what was expected in the state where Trump notoriously asked, “How stupid are the people of Iowa?” Donald Trump is expected to win New Hampshire next week. If he does, his campaign will be on the way up while Cruz’s will be on the way down. Looking forward, South Carolina may be more receptive to a fellow southerner in Cruz. While the next state on the calendar after that, Nevada, is like a second home to Trump. Expect a 2-2 tie going into March.

Marco Rubio (going up)

The biggest winner after the Iowa Caucus was US Senator Marco Rubio. That was the result of a last-minute push by the leaders of America’s oligarchy. One news show after another went out of their way to tell voters that the powers-that-be had chosen Rubio over Bush, Christie and Kasich to be the candidate of the establishment. That non-stop media onslaught propelled Rubio from single digits to coming less than one percent away from second place. While Cruz is representing the religious/rebellious wing of the party, and Trump is representing the independent/populist wing, the corporate/billionaire wing now has an undisputed representative in Marco Rubio. The Iowa Caucus produced three distinct frontrunners and Rubio is suddenly one of them.

Ben Carson (going down)

Once the frontrunner in Iowa, Dr. Ben Carson placed a respectable 4th. Unfortunately, he saw most of his voter base abandon him to coalesce behind Ted Cruz. While last night’s results were disappointing for his supporters, Carson could theoretically hang around in fourth place for a few more weeks and hope Ted Cruz is either disqualified or stumbles. Being a non-politician will help him in New Hampshire and being the only black candidate in the race should help in South Carolina – the next two contests on the calendar.



Rand Paul (no change)

Congressman Rand Paul must be disappointed by his 5th place finish yesterday, but relieved to be in the top tier and able to move onto New Hampshire. His campaign strategy hinged on inheriting his father’s grassroots revolution, plus the support of the GOP establishment he was supposedly going to receive due to his 2012 endorsement of Mitt Romney over his own father. But neither one happened. Instead, being the only libertarian and anti-war candidate in the field, Rand Paul registered a little over 4% and captured one delegate, enough to move onto New Hampshire and a seemingly receptive state.

Jeb Bush (going down)

The darling of the establishment and the heir of the New World Order found out the hard way that virtually nobody in America wants to see a third member of Bush’s immediate family become President. It’s safe to say that the movers and shakers of Washington and Wall Street are pressing Jeb hard to drop out of the race and throw his support behind the establishment’s chosen candidate, Marco Rubio. Bush’s only hope is holding on until South Carolina where his family has deep connections and a record of pulling off surprise victories.

Carly Fiorina (going down)

Like Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina watched much of her potential vote desert her for Marco Rubio and Donald Trump. Finishing with 1.9% of the vote and no delegates, most candidates would contemplate dropping out. But being the only woman in the race, Fiorina could hold on to New Hampshire and pray for a miracle.

John Kasich (going down)

Ohio Governor John Kasich also finished with 1.9% of the vote and no delegates. But the candidate that nobody seems to know has a surprise up his sleeve. He’s currently polling 4th in New Hampshire behind Trump, Cruz and Rubio. Of the 5 candidates that finished with 1% and with no delegates, there is no chance Kasich will drop out before the next contest. If he can build on his popularity in New Hampshire and pull off an upset win, he can give Rubio a run for the establishment wing of the party. If he finishes fourth or below, his campaign is over.

Mike Huckabee (dropped out)

Former Governor Mike Huckabee was another late-night drop-out yesterday after he finished with only 1.8% of the vote. His religious base deserted him for Ted Cruz. As likeable and popular as Huckabee is, the other candidates are already campaigning for his endorsement.



Chris Christie (going down)

Governor Chris Christie never bet his campaign on Iowa and nobody expected him to do well there. Christie’s campaign strategy has always been to concentrate on New Hampshire and win there. Unfortunately for him, most of his political base has coalesced behind Marco Rubio and it may be too late to try and woo them back.

Rick Santorum (going down)

The winner of the Iowa Caucus in 2012 finished with a disappointing 1% of the vote and no delegates. After those results, he told the local Iowa media that he hadn’t decided yet if he would drop out or continue his campaign. His supporters are firmly entrenched in the Ted Cruz campaign. If he finished last in Iowa, which is one of his best states, Rick Santorum will most likely drop out before New Hampshire.


Final thoughts

With Bernie Sanders’ strong finish in Iowa and Hillary Clinton’s mounting legal troubles, this could be a close race and contested well into April, May or June. Watch for the two candidates to trade victories with Iowa going to Clinton, New Hampshire to Sanders, South Carolina to Clinton, and so on.

The Republicans also face a contested primary process and may even end up with a brokered convention. There are three pillars in the Republican Party and each has its favorite. The social and religious conservatives are behind Ted Cruz. The Wall Street billionaires are pushing Marco Rubio. And the moderates and independents are supporting Donald Trump. If things continue the way they are, it should be a three-man race to the finish.

 

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