How tomorrows US-China War plays out

According to the Rand Corporation’s simulations for the US Pentagon, the most likely catalyst for a military confrontation between China and America would be hostilities between China and US-ally Taiwan. Taiwan is already called Chinese Taipei by most of the world because China’s conquest of the populous island is more than half complete. The only thing left to do is neutralize the Taiwanese military so the Chinese can physically occupy their neighbor instead of just exerting political control. And that’s how Rand and the Pentagon believe a US-China war would most likely start.

The first action, they say, would be a surprise attack by China on Taiwan’s Air Forces to establish immediate control of the air. That would force the US to respond by scrambling its fighter wings based in Japan and Guam to Taiwan to protect the island from a Chinese invasion or a massive bombing campaign on its citizens and ground forces. And that’s where the computer models show the US military completely falling apart, only moments after entering combat against a less-advanced but formidable foe.

‘In the scenario, 72 Chinese jets patrolled the Taiwan Strait,’ the report described, ‘Just 26 American warplanes - the survivors of a second missile barrage targeting their airfields - were able to intercept them, including 10 twin-engine F-22 stealth fighters that quickly fired off all their missiles. That left 16 of the smaller, single-engine F-35s to do battle with the Chinese. As they began exchanging fire with the enemy jets within the mathematical models of the mock conflict, the results were shocking.’

The lesson from the simulated encounter was that the newest and most expense American joint strike fighter – the F-35, ‘was no match for Chinese warplanes. Despite their vaunted ability to evade detection by radar, the JSFs were blown out of the sky.’ The authors reluctantly conceded, “The F-35 is double-inferior.”

“Can’t turn. Can’t climb. Can’t run.”

The Lockheed Martin fighter was sold to the American people with the promise that its weapons systems were so advanced, it could shoot enemy planes out of the sky long before enemy radar even picked up the F-35s. And that’s still true. But what happens after the initial few seconds as both air forces are charging directly at each other at the speed of sound? The results were that as soon as the range closed and the F-35s lost their advantage of extreme distance, they were all shot down by Chinese fighters.

The secret Rand report for the Pentagon wrote, “Inferior acceleration, inferior climb, inferior sustained turn capability. Also has lower top speed. Can’t turn, can’t climb, can’t run.” The military analysts explained that the F-35 would function better as a long-range, mobile missile platform rather than a fighter. The computer models showed that once the jets had lost their element of surprise and launched all their missiles, remaining enemy fighters had no problem clearing them from the sky. The result was the loss of the battle and China’s successful invasion of Taiwan.

Lockheed Martin fires back

Once the secret US-China war simulation was leaked to the public, Lockheed Martin immediately released a statement saying that the exercise was not about jet-to-jet analysis and that their F-35 was, “effectively meeting” the challenges put forth by potential enemy air forces. The two lead managers of the simulation for Rand are no longer with the company. One now works for Northrop Grumman and the other went to the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

Sensing that their trillion-dollar defense contract might be in jeopardy again, Lockheed Martin fiercely responded to the leaked Pentagon report. “It was policy people who did that report with no airplane experience,” Lockheed Martin Vice President Steve O’Bryan defended the F-35. He literally described the fighter’s critics as, “self-proclaimed experts who live in their mom’s basement and wear slippers to work.”

The two analysts who produced the simulation showing America’s defeat shot back in their own defense. Both are experienced pilots, with one having fought in Iraq flying F-15s during the Gulf War and the other having flown RF-4 recon planes for the US military. “I don’t live in my mom’s basement,” the analyst replied.

Military Industrial Complex

The report from Medium.com quoted Chuck Spinney, who they describe as a retired Defense Department analyst and whistleblower who one US Senator called the “conscience of the Pentagon.” Spinney explained, “What you have to understand is that problems with the F-35 are the result of pathological decision-making patterns that go back at least to the 1960s.”

A dream contract for Lockheed Martin, the F-35 is supposed to replace roughly a dozen aging US fighters and fighter-bombers produced by a half dozen different defense contractors. They include tried and true planes like the F-16 and the A-10 Thunderbolt, affectionately nicknamed the ‘warthog’.

The authors conclude, ‘Engineering compromises forced on the F-35 by this unprecedented need for versatility have taken their toll on the new jet’s performance. Largely because of the wide vertical-takeoff fan the Marines demanded, the JSF is wide, heavy and has high drag, and is neither as quick as an F-16 nor as toughly constructed as an A-10. The jack-of-all-trades JSF has become the master of none.’

They close by quoting one Australian military analyst who recently entered the field of politics after arguing against his country’s purchase of the F-35s. He warned fellow Australians that in combat, America’s new F-35s will get, “clubbed like baby seals.” American politicians and the US military take the opposing view. They’re in the process of making the F-35 the only fighter America has.

Read the length report from War Is Boring at Medium.com.